Predicting the antigenic evolution of SARS-COV-2 with deep learning.

The relentless evolution of SARS-CoV-2 poses a significant threat to public health, as it adapts to immune pressure from vaccines and natural infections. Gaining insights into potential antigenic changes is critical but challenging due to the vast sequence space. Here, we introduce the Machine Learning-guided Antigenic Evolution Prediction (MLAEP), which combines structure modeling, multi-task learning, and genetic algorithms to predict the viral fitness landscape and explore antigenic evolution via in silico directed evolution. By analyzing existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, MLAEP accurately infers variant order along antigenic evolutionary trajectories, correlating with corresponding sampling time. Our approach identified novel mutations in immunocompromised COVID-19 patients and emerging variants like XBB1.5. Additionally, MLAEP predictions were validated through in vitro neutralizing antibody binding assays, demonstrating that the predicted variants exhibited enhanced immune evasion. By profiling existing variants and predicting potential antigenic changes, MLAEP aids in vaccine development and enhances preparedness against future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Effectiveness of heterologous and homologous covid-19 vaccine regimens: living systematic review with network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of heterologous and homologous covid-19 vaccine regimens with and without boosting in preventing covid-19 related infection, hospital admission, and death. DESIGN: Living systematic review and network meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: World Health Organization covid-19 databases, including 38 sources of published studies and preprints. STUDY SELECTION: Randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies. METHODS: 38 WHO covid-19 databases were searched on a weekly basis from 8 March 2022 to 31 July 2022. Studies that assessed the effectiveness of heterologous and homologous covid-19 vaccine regimens with or without a booster were identified. Studies were eligible when they reported the number of documented, symptomatic, severe covid-19 infections, covid-19 related hospital admissions, or covid-19 related deaths among populations that were vaccinated and unvaccinated. The primary measure was vaccine effectiveness calculated as 1−odds ratio. Secondary measures were surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) scores and the relative effects for pairwise comparisons. The risk of bias was evaluated by using the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I) tool for all cohort and case-control studies. The Cochrane risk of bias tool (version 2; ROB-2) was used to assess randomised controlled trials. RESULTS: The second iteration of the analysis comprised 63 studies. 25 combinations of covid-19 vaccine regimens were identified, of which three doses of mRNA vaccine were found to be 93% (95% credible interval 70% to 98%) effective against asymptomatic or symptomatic covid-19 infections for non-delta or non-omicron related infections. Heterologous boosting using two dose adenovirus vector vaccines with one dose mRNA vaccine showed a vaccine effectiveness of 94% (72% to 99%) against non-delta or non-omicron related asymptomatic or symptomatic infections. Three doses of mRNA vaccine were found to be the most effective in reducing non-delta or non-omicron related hospital admission (96%, 82% to 99%). The vaccine effectiveness against death in people who received three doses of mRNA vaccine remains uncertain owing to confounders. The estimate for a four dose mRNA vaccine regimen was of low certainty, as only one study on the effectiveness of four doses could be included in this update. More evidence on four dose regimens will be needed to accurately assess the effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose. For people with delta or omicron related infection, a two dose regimen of an adenovirus vector vaccine with one dose of mRNA booster was 77% (42% to 91%) effective against asymptomatic or symptomatic covid-19 infections, and a three dose regimen of a mRNA vaccine was 93% (76% to 98%) effective against covid-19 related hospital admission. CONCLUSION: An mRNA booster is recommended to supplement any primary vaccine course. Heterologous and homologous three dose regimens work comparably well in preventing covid-19 infections, even against different variants. The effectiveness of three dose vaccine regimens against covid-19 related death remains uncertain. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: This review was not registered. The protocol is included in the supplementary document. READERS' NOTE: This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 1 of the original article published on 31 May 2022 (BMJ 2022;377:e069989), and previous versions can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2022-069989/related). When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity.

Diagnostic performances of common nucleic acid tests for SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals and clinics: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: An optimised standard experimental setup across different hospitals is urgently needed to ensure consistency in nucleic acid test results for SARS-CoV-2 detection. A standard comparison across different nucleic acid tests and their optimal experimental setups is not present. We assessed the performance of three common nucleic acid tests, namely digital PCR (dPCR), quantitative PCR (qPCR), and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), to detect SARS-CoV-2 in clinical settings. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we compared sensitivity and specificity of qPCR, dPCR, and LAMP and their performances when different experimental setups (namely specimen type used, use of RNA extraction, primer-probe sets, and RNA extraction methods) are applied. We searched PubMed, BioRxiv, MedRxiv, SciFinder, and ScienceDirect for studies and preprints published between Feb 29 and Dec 15, 2020. Included dPCR, qPCR, and LAMP studies using any type of human specimens should report the number of true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative cases with Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)-approved PCR assays as the comparator. Studies with a sample size of less than ten, descriptive studies, case studies, reviews, and duplicated studies were excluded. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were computed from the true and false positive and negative cases using Reitsma's bivariate random-effects and bivariate latent class models. Test performance reported in area under the curve (AUC) of the three nucleic acid tests was further compared by pooling studies with similar experimental setups (eg, tests that used RNA extracted pharyngeal swabs but with either the open reading frame 1ab or the N primer). Heterogeneity was assessed and reported in I 2 and τ2. FINDINGS: Our search identified 1277 studies of which we included 66 studies (11 dPCR, 32 qPCR, and 23 LAMP) with 15 017 clinical samples in total in our systematic review and 52 studies in our meta-analysis. dPCR had the highest pooled diagnostic sensitivity (94·1%, 95% CI 88·9-96·6, by Reitsma's model and 95·8%, 54·9-100·0, by latent class model), followed by qPCR (92·7%, 88·3-95·6, and 93·4%, 60·9-99·9) and LAMP (83·3%, 76·9-88·2, and 86·2%, 20·7-99·9), using EUA-approved PCR kits as the reference standard. LAMP was the most specific with a pooled estimate of 96·3% (93·8-97·8) by Reitsma's model and 94·3% (49·1-100·0) by latent class model, followed by qPCR (92·9%, 87·2-96·2, and 93·1%, 47·1-100·0) and dPCR (78·5%, 57·4-90·8, and 73·8%, 0·9-100·0). The overall heterogeneity was I 2 0·5% (τ2 2·79) for dPCR studies, 0% (4·60) for qPCR studies, and 0% (3·96) for LAMP studies. AUCs of the three nucleic acid tests were the highest and differed the least between tests (ie, AUC>0·98 for all tests) when performed with RNA extracted pharyngeal swabs using SARS-CoV-2 open reading frame 1ab primer. INTERPRETATION: All three nucleic acid tests consistently perform better with pharyngeal swabs using SARS-CoV-2 open reading frame 1ab primer with RNA extraction. dPCR was shown to be the most sensitive, followed by qPCR and LAMP. However, their accuracy does not differ significantly. Instead, accuracy depends on specific experimental conditions, implying that more efforts should be directed to optimising the experimental setups for the nucleic acid tests. Hence, our results could be a reference for optimising and establishing a standard nucleic acid test protocol that is applicable in laboratories worldwide. FUNDING: University Grants Committee and The Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Uncovering mechanisms of RT-LAMP colorimetric SARS-CoV-2 detection to improve assay reliability.

Improved diagnostics are needed to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we enhanced the color changes and sensitivity of colorimetric SARS-CoV-2 RT-LAMP assays based on triarylmethane dyes. We determined a mechanism for the color changes and obtained sensitivities of 10 RNA copies per microliter.

The mechanism of action of T-705 as a unique delayed chain terminator on influenza viral polymerase transcription.

Favipiravir (T-705) has been developed as a potent anti-influenza drug and exhibited a strong inhibition effect against a broad spectrum of RNA viruses. Its active form, ribofuranosyl-triphosphate (T-705-RTP), functions as a competitive substrate for the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) of the influenza A virus (IAV). However, the exact inhibitory mechanisms of T-705 remain elusive and subject to a long-standing debate. Although T-705 has been proposed to inhibit transcription by acting as a chain terminator, it is also paradoxically suggested to be a mutagen towards IAV RdRp by inducing mutations due to its ambiguous base pairing of C and U. Here, we combined biochemical assay with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to elucidate the molecular mechanism underlying the inhibitory functions exerted by T-705 in IAV RdRp. Our in vitro transcription assay illustrated that IAV RdRp could recognize T-705 as a purine analogue and incorporate it into the nascent RNA strand. Incorporating a single T-705 is incapable of inhibiting transcription as extra natural nucleotides can be progressively added. However, when two consecutive T-705 are incorporated, viral transcription is completely terminated. MD simulations reveal that the sequential appearance of two T-705 in the nascent strand destabilizes the active site and disrupts the base stacking of the nascent RNA. Altogether, our results provide a plausible explanation for the inhibitory roles of T-705 targeting IAV RdRp by integrating the computational and experimental methods. Our study also offers a comprehensive platform to investigate the inhibition effect of antivirals and a novel explanation for the designing of anti-flu drugs.

1'-Ribose cyano substitution allows Remdesivir to effectively inhibit nucleotide addition and proofreading during SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA replication.

COVID-19 has recently caused a global health crisis and an effective interventional therapy is urgently needed. Remdesivir is one effective inhibitor for SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA replication. It supersedes other NTP analogues because it not only terminates the polymerization activity of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), but also inhibits the proofreading activity of intrinsic exoribonuclease (ExoN). Even though the static structure of Remdesivir binding to RdRp has been solved and biochemical experiments have suggested it to be a "delayed chain terminator", the underlying molecular mechanisms is not fully understood. Here, we performed all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with an accumulated simulation time of 24 microseconds to elucidate the inhibitory mechanism of Remdesivir on nucleotide addition and proofreading. We found that when Remdesivir locates at an upstream site in RdRp, the 1'-cyano group experiences electrostatic interactions with a salt bridge (Asp865-Lys593), which subsequently halts translocation. Our findings can supplement the current understanding of the delayed chain termination exerted by Remdesivir and provide an alternative molecular explanation about Remdesivir's inhibitory mechanism. Such inhibition also reduces the likelihood of Remdesivir to be cleaved by ExoN acting on 3'-terminal nucleotides. Furthermore, our study also suggests that Remdesivir's 1'-cyano group can disrupt the cleavage site of ExoN via steric interactions, leading to a further reduction in the cleavage efficiency. Our work provides plausible and novel mechanisms at the molecular level of how Remdesivir inhibits viral RNA replication, and our findings may guide rational design for new treatments of COVID-19 targeting viral replication.

Remdesivir, lopinavir, emetine, and homoharringtonine inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro.

An escalating pandemic by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus is impacting global health and effective therapeutic options are urgently needed. We evaluated the in vitro antiviral effect of compounds that were previously reported to inhibit coronavirus replication and compounds that are currently under evaluation in clinical trials for SARS-CoV-2 patients. We report the antiviral effect of remdesivir, lopinavir, homorringtonine, and emetine against SARS-CoV-2 virus in Vero E6 cells with the estimated 50% effective concentration at 23.15 µM, 26.63 µM, 2.55 µM and 0.46 µM, respectively. Ribavirin or favipiravir that are currently evaluated under clinical trials showed no inhibition at 100 µM. Synergy between remdesivir and emetine was observed, and remdesivir at 6.25 µM in combination with emetine at 0.195 µM may achieve 64.9% inhibition in viral yield. Combinational therapy may help to reduce the effective concentration of compounds below the therapeutic plasma concentrations and provide better clinical benefits.